The question
Marcus, 45, runs a small residential contracting business in North Dallas. His truck is a rolling toolbox — job sites five days a week, hauling lumber, tools, and the occasional trailer with a small skid steer. His 2019 F-150 is due for replacement, and Ford's dealer keeps pitching the Lightning: "the F-150 that pays for itself in fuel savings."
Marcus decides to actually run the numbers. He drives 22,000 miles a year, tows maybe eight to ten times a year (never more than 60 miles round trip), and would buy either truck outright with cash reserved from a good year. He knows the Lightning is $20K more up front, but the dealer's fuel math sounded compelling. Would 5 years of Texas electricity make up the difference?
The vehicles
2025 Ford F-150 XLT SuperCrew 4x4
$46,000
- Combined MPG20
- CategoryFull-size pickup · 4x4
- Depreciation model9% / yr (F-150 historical retention)
2025 Ford F-150 Lightning XLT Extended Range
$66,000
- Efficiency45 kWh / 100 mi
- CategoryFull-size pickup · 4x4
- Depreciation model16% / yr (Lightning weak retention)
The 5-year math
| Gas F-150 | F-150 Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| MSRP | $46,000 | $66,000 |
| Depreciation (5-yr loss) | $17,296 | $38,412 |
| Fuel or electricity (5-yr) | $17,050 gasoline | $3,960 electricity |
| Insurance (5-yr) | $8,500 | $10,500 |
| Maintenance (5-yr) | $4,250 | $3,000 |
| State incentives | — | $0 (TX has no state EV rebate) |
| 5-year true cost to own | $47,096 | $55,872 |
| Difference | Gas F-150 wins by $8,776 | |
Assumptions: Gulf Coast gasoline at $3.10/gal (EIA PADD 3 average). Reliant Truly Free Nights blended at $0.080/kWh (assumes ~85% overnight charging; delivery charges still apply during "free" hours). Insurance from Drive Economics's density-and-MSRP model for a Dallas ZIP. Maintenance from make and category (Ford mainstream; EV multiplier applied). Depreciation is geometric; Lightning uses 16% based on iSeeCars 2024 retention data. Texas has no state EV purchase rebate. The US federal EV tax credit expired Sept 30, 2025 and is excluded. See methodology.
The verdict
Gas F-150 wins by $8,776 over 5 years — real money, a landslide by TCO-calculation standards. The Lightning's electricity cost is genuinely spectacular ($13,090 cheaper than gas over 5 years at Reliant's overnight rate), but it doesn't come close to offsetting $21,116 more in depreciation loss plus $2,000 more in insurance.
Two forces work against the Lightning in this case study. First, the sticker price gap: $20,000 up front, and premium vehicles depreciate more absolute dollars simply because the base is higher. Second, the retention rate: iSeeCars and CarEdge data through 2024 has been rough on the Lightning specifically — 5-year retention has trended toward 40%, well below the Model Y (~53%) and even the industry EV median.
None of this touches Marcus's real-world concern: range under load. The Lightning Extended Range's 320-mile EPA figure drops to roughly 130–160 miles when towing a trailer. Marcus's tow trips are short, so this isn't disqualifying — but it would be for a contractor doing longer hauls or working sites without charging infrastructure.
What could change this
- A federal EV credit's return — if the $7,500 credit is reinstated for trucks, the delta compresses to about $1,300 in favor of gas. The Lightning would essentially be tied on TCO with a credit in play. This is speculative — no legislation is pending as of Q1 2026.
- Business use tax treatment — Section 179 and bonus depreciation can materially change truck economics for a contractor buying as a business asset. This case is priced as a personal purchase. A CPA can model your specific situation.
- Gasoline going above $4.50/gal and staying there for the full 5-year horizon would close the gap to roughly $3,000 in favor of gas. Texas gas has traded $2.70–$3.60 for two years; a $4.50 average sustained for 5 years is uncommon in Gulf Coast.
- Lightning depreciation stabilizing — if the 5-year retention floor moves from 40% back toward the 48% industry EV median (as Tesla Model Y did after 2021 discounting), the delta would compress by roughly $5,000 in Lightning's favor.
- Home solar can eliminate most of the $3,960 electricity cost, effectively giving Lightning a free-fuel scenario after solar payoff. Doesn't fix the depreciation problem, but improves the story by roughly $3,000 over 5 years.
- Trailer towing frequency matters for Marcus's real-world usability but doesn't change the cash math (it's fuel-cost proportional either way).
Run these numbers with your details
Different mileage, ZIP, or trim? Marcus's answer might not be yours. Try the calculator with F-150 vs. Lightning pre-loaded, then adjust for your situation.
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