The question
Michael is a 42-year-old auto industry engineer who lives in Ferndale and commutes to Dearborn — a 20-mile round trip that becomes 60 on the days he visits the Rouge plant. He drives 18,000 miles a year, works for a Ford supplier, and feels professionally obligated to keep his money in the Ford ecosystem. His 2018 Ford Edge is due for replacement, and Ford's dealer is pushing the Mach-E.
His constraints: 18,000 miles a year, cash purchase (five years of good bonuses set aside), five-year ownership horizon, and a garage in Ferndale that would need a 240V outlet installed (roughly $800 with a local electrician). He wants the same-brand cross-shop math: 2025 Ford Escape SEL AWD (his instinct — Ford's mainstream family crossover) vs. 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Select RWD (the dealer's pitch).
The vehicles
2025 Ford Escape SEL AWD
$33,000
- Combined MPG26
- CategoryCompact crossover · AWD
- Depreciation model11% / yr (Ford mainstream)
2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Select RWD
$40,000
- Efficiency31 kWh / 100 mi
- CategoryCompact crossover · RWD
- Depreciation model12% / yr (Mach-E stabilized retention)
The 5-year math
| Ford Escape | Ford Mach-E | |
|---|---|---|
| MSRP | $33,000 | $40,000 |
| Depreciation (5-yr loss) | $14,573 | $18,891 |
| Fuel or electricity (5-yr) | $11,423 gasoline | $2,734 electricity |
| Insurance (5-yr) | $9,250 | $10,250 |
| Maintenance (5-yr) | $3,000 | $2,250 |
| State/federal incentives | — | $0 (MI has no state EV rebate) |
| 5-year true cost to own | $38,246 | $34,125 |
| Difference | Ford Mach-E wins by $4,121 | |
Assumptions: Midwest gasoline at $3.30/gal (EIA PADD 2 average). DTE Time-of-Day EV rate blended at $0.098/kWh (assumes ~85% overnight off-peak charging). Insurance from Drive Economics's density-and-MSRP model for a Detroit ZIP — Michigan remains one of the highest-cost auto insurance states in the country even after 2019 reforms. Maintenance from make and category (Ford mainstream gas; Ford EV multiplier applied). Depreciation is geometric. Mach-E depreciation of 12%/yr reflects iSeeCars 2024 retention data (~51% at 5 years) — the early depreciation shocks stabilized after Ford's 2023 price cuts. Michigan has no state EV purchase rebate; federal EV tax credit expired September 30, 2025. See methodology.
The verdict
Mach-E wins by $4,121 over 5 years — real money, and the largest EV win in Drive Economics's case study library so far. The math flips clearly here because two forces both favor the electric: fuel cost differential ($8,689 over 5 years) from DTE's cheap overnight EV rate, and maintenance savings ($750) from the EV drivetrain.
Where the Mach-E gives ground: $4,318 more in depreciation loss (higher MSRP does more absolute damage even at similar retention rates) and $1,000 more in insurance (Detroit's already-high premiums scale with vehicle value). Not nothing — but the fuel gap is more than double the depreciation gap.
The story here isn't that EVs always win. It's that when you have moderate-to-high mileage (18K+) in a market with a real utility EV rate program (DTE's TOD-EV blends to under $0.10/kWh with overnight charging), the operating cost math becomes overwhelming. Even Ford's own home-market crossover can't compete on the numbers.
For Michael personally, the decision is easier than the math suggests. His employer is investing heavily in EV manufacturing. Driving a Mach-E is on-brand for his professional identity. The math just confirms what his cultural momentum already wants.
What could change this
- Lower mileage tips the math back toward the Escape. At 12,000 mi/yr the Mach-E's advantage shrinks to roughly $1,000. At 8,000 mi/yr the Escape wins by about $1,500 — the fuel savings can't overcome the sticker premium at low usage.
- Michigan winters cost EVs efficiency — expect real-world Mach-E consumption 15-25% worse than EPA in December-February. Averaged across the year, this raises effective consumption by 7-10%, reducing 5-year fuel savings by roughly $250. Doesn't change the verdict.
- DTE's TOD-EV rate structure changing — the EV pilot rate has been renewed multiple times but isn't permanent. If DTE reverts to standard residential ($0.19/kWh flat), Mach-E fuel cost roughly doubles, closing the gap to about $2,500 in Mach-E's favor.
- Federal EV credit reinstated — the previous $7,500 credit expired September 30, 2025 and is excluded from this math. If a $7,500 credit returns, Mach-E wins by roughly $11,600 — a landslide.
- Comparing against the Escape Hybrid — the 2025 Escape Hybrid FWD gets 39 MPG combined. Against the hybrid Escape at 18K miles the Mach-E's win shrinks to roughly $500 (essentially a tie). Hybrids are the hidden competitor that closes the gap in cases like this.
- Home charging install cost — the $800 240V install is a one-time cost the Escape doesn't require. Amortized over 5 years, that's $160/year of extra cost for the Mach-E, reducing the delta to about $3,321. Still a clear win.
Run these numbers with your details
Different mileage, different metro, different Ford dealer? The comparison changes fast. Try the calculator with Michael's vehicles pre-loaded, then adjust for your situation.
Compare Mach-E vs. Escape in the calculator →