The question
James is 38 years old and works as an insurance underwriter in the Loop. He lives in Lincoln Park, drives to his River North office three days a week, and takes weekend trips to visit family in Michigan and Wisconsin. His annual mileage settles at around 14,000 — average for a Chicago professional with public transit access supplementing car use.
His current 2018 Nissan Rogue is starting to accumulate the kind of small issues that make him think about replacement. He's brand-loyal — his last three vehicles have been Nissans — and his local dealer has been recommending he look at the Ariya, Nissan's electric crossover. James is analytically inclined and wanted to run the math himself before deciding.
His constraints: 14,000 miles a year, cash purchase, five-year ownership horizon. AWD is a real requirement (Chicago winters, occasional Michigan snow trips). Level 2 charger installation would run approximately $1,200 for his condo building's covered parking (dedicated 240V circuit runs from the electrical room). Comparison: 2025 Nissan Rogue SL AWD (gas) vs. 2025 Nissan Ariya Engage e-4ORCE AWD (EV).
The vehicles
2025 Nissan Rogue SL AWD
$37,000
- Combined MPG30
- CategoryCompact crossover · AWD 3-cyl turbo
- Depreciation model11% / yr (Nissan mainstream)
2025 Nissan Ariya Engage e-4ORCE AWD
$44,000
- Efficiency38 kWh / 100 mi (winter-weighted)
- CategoryCompact crossover · AWD
- Depreciation model17% / yr (Ariya weak retention)
The 5-year math
| Nissan Rogue | Nissan Ariya | |
|---|---|---|
| MSRP | $37,000 | $44,000 |
| Depreciation (5-yr loss) | $16,339 | $26,668 |
| Fuel or electricity (5-yr) | $8,750 gasoline | $1,702 electricity |
| Insurance (5-yr) | $7,000 | $8,000 |
| Maintenance (5-yr) | $3,000 | $2,250 |
| State incentive | — | −$2,500 (IL EPA EV Rebate) |
| 5-year true cost to own | $35,089 | $36,120 |
| Difference | Nissan Rogue wins by $1,031 — a narrow gas victory | |
Assumptions: Midwest gasoline at $3.75/gal (EIA PADD 2 average with Illinois state gas tax and Chicago sales tax). ComEd Hourly Pricing overnight-weighted rate at $0.064/kWh (85% super off-peak at $0.05/kWh, 10% off-peak at $0.09/kWh, 5% peak at $0.25/kWh — reflects typical overnight-heavy EV charging). Ariya efficiency at 38 kWh/100mi represents winter-weighted annual average: EPA-rated 39 kWh/100mi combined for e-4ORCE AWD, with mild seasonal adjustment for four months of Chicago cold-weather driving (Ariya's heat pump helps cold performance compared to older EV designs). Insurance from Drive Economics's density-and-MSRP model for a Chicago ZIP. Maintenance from make and category (Nissan mainstream gas; Nissan EV multiplier applied). Depreciation is geometric. Rogue at 11%/yr reflects Nissan mainstream retention. Ariya at 17%/yr reflects heavy post-launch price cuts and inventory pressure — Nissan discounted 2023–2024 model years significantly, and used market has followed. Illinois Environmental Protection Agency EV Rebate Program is $2,500 for new EV purchases as of 2026 (income-limited under $250K household AGI, vehicle MSRP under $80K — Ariya qualifies). Federal EV tax credit expired September 30, 2025 and is excluded. See methodology.
The verdict
The Rogue wins by $1,031 over 5 years. Narrow, but instructive — this case illustrates how EV economics can fail even when nearly everything on paper favors the EV.
The Ariya's advantages are real and substantial: $7,048 in fuel cost savings versus the Rogue, $750 in maintenance savings, and $2,500 from Illinois's EV Rebate Program. Total EV advantages: $10,298.
But the Ariya's disadvantages overwhelm them: $10,329 more in depreciation ($7,000 higher MSRP compounded by weak retention at 17%/yr vs Rogue's 11%/yr), and $1,000 more in insurance. Total EV disadvantages: $11,329.
Net: $10,298 in advantages minus $11,329 in disadvantages equals a $1,031 gas win.
What's striking is that Illinois has one of the better state EV rebate programs still active ($2,500), ComEd's Hourly Pricing delivers among the cheapest overnight electricity in the country ($0.05/kWh super off-peak), and the Rogue's 30 MPG isn't particularly efficient. In many markets, this combination would produce a decisive EV win. Chicago illustrates the counterexample: when EV depreciation is weak and gas efficiency is competitive, even substantial fuel savings and state incentives can't close the gap.
The Ariya specifically has struggled with resale — Nissan cut MSRPs aggressively in 2024 to move inventory, which cascaded into weaker used prices. This isn't the Ariya's engineering; it's its market position. A vehicle with the Ariya's specs but stronger brand momentum (Ioniq 5, Model Y) would produce different results in the same Chicago comparison.
What could change this
- Higher mileage tips it to the EV. At 18,000 mi/yr the Ariya's fuel-cost advantage grows by roughly $2,300, flipping the outcome to an Ariya win of approximately $1,300. James's 14,000-mile driving pattern is right below the EV-favorable threshold.
- Ariya retention improves. If Ariya retention stabilizes at 14%/yr (matching Mach-E), depreciation drops by roughly $3,900 over 5 years — flipping the outcome to an Ariya win by about $2,850.
- Not enrolled in ComEd Hourly Pricing. On ComEd's standard residential rate at $0.14/kWh, Ariya electricity climbs from $1,702 to $3,724 over 5 years. That $2,022 increase widens the Rogue's advantage to $3,053 — a moderate gas win.
- Federal EV credit reinstated. The prior $7,500 credit expired September 30, 2025 and is excluded. If reinstated, the Ariya would win by roughly $6,469 — a decisive EV victory.
- Illinois rebate expires or reduces. The IL EPA EV Rebate Program has faced renewal uncertainty and its rebate amount has stepped down from an initial $4,000. If reduced to $1,500, Rogue's advantage grows to $2,031. If eliminated entirely, Rogue wins by $3,531.
- Home charger installation excluded. James's estimated Level 2 installation is $1,200. Adding this to the EV side pushes the Rogue's advantage to $2,231.
- Considering a Toyota RAV4 Hybrid (39 MPG). The Rogue's 30 MPG isn't the best gas comparison. Against a RAV4 Hybrid, fuel costs drop by roughly $2,000 over 5 years — pushing the gas advantage vs the Ariya to about $3,000.
- Selling before 5 years. Ariya depreciation is front-loaded — years 1–2 are worst. If James sold at 3 years, the Rogue's advantage would grow substantially (Ariya's percentage loss is higher early). If he kept it 7 years, the fuel savings compound and the analysis tips toward Ariya.
Run these numbers with your details
Different Chicago neighborhood, different mileage, or considering higher Ariya trims? The comparison changes fast. Try the calculator with James's vehicles pre-loaded, then adjust for your situation.
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