The question
Jessica is 39, lives in Waxhaw, and drives two kids (ages 7 and 10) between school, soccer, tennis practice, and weekend trips to see grandparents in Asheville. Her 2019 Highlander has 96,000 miles and needs to be replaced this fall. She wants to stay in a three-row SUV — the second bench isn't optional for her family logistics — and she's been happy enough with Kia's product quality after her sister's K5 experience to seriously consider both the Telluride and the EV9.
North Carolina gives Jessica nothing on the incentive side. No state EV rebate. No sales tax exemption on EVs. No local utility purchase credit. The federal $7,500 credit expired September 30, 2025 and hasn't returned. Charlotte-area gasoline is $3.77 per gallon (AAA verified, 2026-Q3). Duke Energy's standard residential rate runs 14.5¢ to 16.8¢/kWh depending on season, with an optional Time-of-Use rate that drops off-peak charging to about 12.5¢/kWh in exchange for a premium during summer weekday peak windows (3:00–9:00 PM).
Does the EV9 make sense for a Waxhaw family, on math alone, without policy scaffolding?
The vehicles
GASOLINE
2025 Kia Telluride EX AWD
$48,000
ELECTRIC
2025 Kia EV9 Wind AWD
$65,000
The 5-year math
| TELLURIDE EX AWD | EV9 WIND AWD | |
|---|---|---|
| MSRP | $48,000 | $65,000 |
| Depreciation (5-yr loss) | $19,656 | $34,422 |
| Fuel or electricity (5-yr) | $14,138 gasoline ✓ | $4,121 electricity ✓ |
| Insurance (5-yr) | $7,750 | $9,750 |
| Maintenance (5-yr) | $3,000 | $2,000 |
| State incentive | — | $0 (NC has no EV credit) |
| Federal incentive | — | $0 (expired 09/30/2025) |
| 5-year true cost to own | $44,544 | $50,293 |
| Difference | Telluride wins by $5,750 — depreciation gap outweighs fuel savings | |
Assumptions: Charlotte regular gasoline at $3.77/gal (AAA verified 2026-08-19). Duke Energy standard residential rate blended at $0.157/kWh (average of summer 16.8¢ and winter 14.5¢). Depreciation from Drive Economics's market-observed retention models by nameplate and powertrain type; Telluride's 10%/yr reflects segment-leading retention (iSeeCars consistently ranks Telluride in top 5 for 3-row SUV retention); EV9's 14%/yr reflects new-model uncertainty with reference to Kia EV6's observed 2023-2025 retention curve. Insurance from density-and-MSRP model for a Waxhaw ZIP (28173). Maintenance from make and category baselines with EV multiplier applied. Federal EV credit is zero (expired September 30, 2025). North Carolina has no state EV incentive. Charger installation excluded (assumes home charging setup already available or paid separately). See methodology. Fuel prices fluctuate significantly — verify current Charlotte-area prices before major decisions.
The verdict
The gas Telluride wins by $5,750 over 5 years. Decomposition tells a specific story about the current state of the 3-row family EV segment:
The EV9 saves Jessica about $10,000 in operating costs — $10,016 in fuel and roughly $1,000 in maintenance. That's real money. Charlotte's $3.77 gasoline plus 15 mpg-equivalent penalty on a large three-row SUV plus 15,000 miles per year for five years compounds to meaningful savings.
What eats those savings is the capital cost gap. The EV9 Wind AWD's $65,000 MSRP is $17,000 higher than the equivalent Telluride EX AWD. That MSRP gap alone produces $14,766 more in 5-year depreciation, even before accounting for the EV9's weaker retention as a new-model EV. Add $2,000 in insurance premium (EVs typically insure 20-30% higher and the EV9's higher value amplifies this), and the total capital penalty is $16,766 — $5,750 more than the operating savings.
The broader library pattern this case demonstrates. Charlotte is now the fourth case study in our library modeling an EV purchase in a market without state EV credits (Dallas F-150 Lightning, Nashville Silverado EV, Chicago Ariya, Charlotte EV9). Three of the four produce a gas win; the fourth (Chicago) is a $1,031 gas win, essentially a tie. The one exception to the pattern in our library is Detroit, where the Mach-E wins despite Michigan's absence of state credit — but only because Detroit gasoline is unusually expensive ($4.23/gal) AND DTE's Overnight Savers super off-peak rate is unusually cheap ($0.1174/kWh). Detroit is the exception that proves the rule: without state credits, an EV needs multiple other favorable factors stacking simultaneously to compete on pure math.
For Jessica's family in Charlotte, the math points clearly to the Telluride. The EV9 is a good vehicle — quieter, quicker, cleaner — but choosing it over the Telluride in 2026 in Charlotte is paying roughly $5,750 for non-financial preferences (environmental values, technology enthusiasm, road trip novelty, home backup power capability via V2L). Which many family buyers will do. But it should be a conscious choice, not one based on an assumption that the EV automatically saves money.
What could change this
- Federal $7,500 credit reinstatement flips the outcome cleanly. If the federal EV credit returns — through legislation, executive action, or industry-specific policy — the EV9 wins by $1,750. This single policy variable is the largest single lever in the analysis. Whether or not this happens over Jessica's ownership horizon is genuinely uncertain in the current political environment; worth watching but not something to bank on.
- Very high mileage flips the outcome, but the threshold is aggressive. At 22,000 miles per year, the gas advantage shrinks to $1,075 — essentially tied. At 25,000 mi/yr, the EV9 wins by $928. This is well above typical family SUV usage; Jessica's 15,000 mi/yr is closer to the mainstream. Higher-mileage households (long commutes plus regular weekend trips) tip the math toward the EV.
- Duke Energy's Time-of-Use rate saves about $840 over 5 years. Enrolling in TOU and charging exclusively during off-peak hours (avoiding the 3-9 PM summer weekday peak) drops EV9 electricity from $4,121 to $3,281. Meaningful but doesn't flip the outcome — the depreciation gap is too large for a $0.03/kWh rate improvement to close it alone. Still worth enrolling if Jessica goes EV; free money for a driver already scheduling overnight charging.
- EV9 retention improving to match Telluride-tier (12%/yr) compresses the gap by $3,725. If Kia stabilizes EV9 pricing and used-EV demand catches up with supply through 2026-2028, retention could improve. The remaining gas advantage under this scenario would be roughly $2,025. Combined with the federal credit reinstatement scenario, EV9 wins decisively. Neither is guaranteed; both are plausible on a 2-3 year horizon.
- Regular DC fast charging on road trips widens the gap. Jessica's regular Asheville trips (roughly 130 miles each way) exceed the EV9's comfortable non-stop range and would typically involve DC fast charging stops. Public DCFC in North Carolina runs $0.40-$0.50/kWh. If 30% of the EV9's annual kWh comes from public DC charging instead of home, the mixed rate raises 5-year electricity to about $6,193, widening the gas advantage to about $7,822. Home overnight charging is what makes EV9 economics work.
- Non-monetary consideration: V2L for hurricane season. The EV9 includes vehicle-to-load capability that can power household essentials (refrigerator, medical devices, some lighting) during grid outages. Charlotte's September-October hurricane and severe storm season creates real value for this capability that doesn't show up in TCO math but matters for a family with young kids. Not a financial argument, but worth weighing.
Run this comparison for your specific situation
Jessica's numbers are one Waxhaw family at 15,000 miles per year on cash purchase. Your ZIP, your mileage, your financing, your utility rate enrollment all shift the math. Use the calculator with your inputs.