ID.4 vs. Tiguan in Portland.

The question

David is a 37-year-old software engineer at a Beaverton tech company. He lives in Southeast Portland's Sunnyside neighborhood, commutes to Beaverton three days a week (roughly 24 miles round trip through the tunnel), and does typical weekend errands and Cascades trips. His annual mileage settles at around 14,000 — moderate by American standards, low by Portland tech-worker standards.

David has driven a 2019 VW Tiguan for six years and has liked it. He's ready to upgrade. His question is whether to move to a 2025 Tiguan (safe, familiar, the vehicle he already knows) or the 2025 ID.4 (VW's electric alternative, roughly the same size and price bracket). He's already looked at Model Ys and Ioniq 5s, but wants to stay in the VW ecosystem — service is convenient, he trusts the brand, and his dealer knows him.

His constraints: 14,000 miles a year, cash purchase, five-year ownership horizon, and a garage at his home where a Level 2 charger could be installed for approximately $1,100 (single-family home, existing 200-amp panel — quote from Portland electrician). The comparison: 2025 VW Tiguan SEL R-Line AWD (gas) vs. 2025 VW ID.4 Standard RWD Pro (EV).

The vehicles

The 5-year math

Assumptions: Pacific Northwest gasoline at $4.15/gal (EIA PADD 5 average with Oregon's high state gas tax; Portland typically 5–8 cents/gal above the state average). PGE Electric Vehicle Time-of-Day rate blended at $0.070/kWh (85% super off-peak at $0.05/kWh, 10% off-peak at $0.10/kWh, 5% peak at $0.35/kWh — reflects typical overnight-heavy EV charging pattern). Insurance from Drive Economics's density-and-MSRP model for a Portland ZIP. Maintenance from make and category (VW mainstream gas with slightly higher-than-typical German-brand service costs; VW EV multiplier applied to ID.4). Depreciation is geometric. Tiguan 13%/yr reflects VW's weaker retention than Japanese or Korean competitors. ID.4 16%/yr reflects heavy post-2024 price cuts and inventory pressure. Oregon Clean Vehicle Rebate Program standard rebate is $2,500 for new EVs under $50,000 MSRP purchased or leased (some income-qualified households qualify for enhanced $5,000 rebate — not applied here). Federal EV tax credit expired September 30, 2025 and is excluded. See methodology.

What could change this

• The Oregon rebate could expire or reduce. The Oregon CVRP has faced funding uncertainty in every biennial state budget cycle. If the $2,500 rebate disappears, the ID.4's advantage narrows to $6,874 — still decisive, but less dramatic.
• Not enrolled in PGE's EV Time-of-Day rate. On the standard residential rate at $0.13/kWh, ID.4 electricity climbs from $1,617 to $3,003 over 5 years. That $1,386 increase reduces the advantage to $7,988 — still decisive.
• Charging away from home frequently. Portland has extensive public DC fast charging, but public rates run $0.35–$0.50/kWh. A driver charging 30% publicly instead of overnight at home adds roughly $2,200 to 5-year electricity costs. Even then, the ID.4 wins by $7,150.
• Home charger installation excluded. David's electrician quoted $1,100 for Level 2 install. Adding this to the EV side reduces the advantage to $8,274 — still decisive.
• Comparing to a hybrid. Against a Toyota RAV4 Hybrid (39 MPG combined AWD), the fuel gap closes significantly. The ID.4 would still win, but by roughly $4,500 rather than $9,374.
• Choosing the ID.4 Pro S or Pro S Plus trims. These push MSRP above $50,000, disqualifying the vehicle from the Oregon rebate. The loss of the $2,500 credit combined with $1,500 more in depreciation would reduce the win to roughly $5,400.
• Income-qualified rebate. Oregon offers an enhanced $5,000 rebate for households at or below 400% of federal poverty level. This would widen David's advantage to $11,874. He does not qualify for this enhancement at his income level.
• Federal EV credit reinstated. The prior $7,500 credit expired September 30, 2025 and is excluded. If reinstated, the ID.4 would win by roughly $16,874 — completely lopsided.